South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) marked its 100th day in office at the weekend. Formed after the May polls, the new GNU arrangement of 10 political parties has been hailed as the panacea for the country’s social and economic woes. However, some detractors have described the GNU as a sell-out pact only meant to serve the interest of business at the expense of the poor.
This is despite President Cyril Ramaphosa sentiments that the GNU is ” the best thing that we now have to move the country forward.”
“Any other option as far as I am concerned will really be bad for this country at this point in time,” the President had said.
However, political economist Duma Gqubule paints a bleak future for a pact Ramaphosa described as an exceptional achievement.
“I pray that this thing collapses, you know. I hope it collapses and we can begin to think about what change will look like. The prospects are not good for South Africans, especially the youth because my focus is unemployment. After 100 days, they have never said anything about how they going to address this unemployment crisis. Nothing from the Central Bank and nothing from the Treasury but they are just planning to tighten the screws of these failed micro-economies. So what they going to do in the budget in 2025 is to introduce a primary surplus target of two per cent and inflation target of 4.5 percent, which will make the economic crises worse.”
Gqubule further argues that one cannot do the same thing repeatedly and expect different results.
“They have just repeated the same economic policies that have failed over the past 15 years with different people… This is the ANC government, it feels like an ANC government. They are doing the same thing and the results will be the same as over the last 15 years. According to my modeling, the number of unemployed people is going to increase by two million to 14.4 million by the end of this administration… at the same time unemployment will increase by 44.6%.”
Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast has also said it is still early days to say whether the GNU has done the job.
“It’s still early days to see where the wind is blowing, but the discourse about the conception of GNU was framed by the ruling party to circumvent critics that it has joined forces with the DA. So instead of employing the concept of a coalition formation, they have opted for the notion of GNU. They can argue and say they have joined forces with other political parties as opposed to one political party but at the moment I cannot single out political indicators which are showcasing that all is well.”
Breakfast also says while there seem to be celebrations for the GNU, the pact has a lot to overcome.
“I am hesitant to be overly optimistic just because there is some stability at the moment. There are several issues that still need to be addressed, such as the National Health Insurance (NHI) and our foreign policy posture. While some doubt the prospects of the Government of National Unity (GNU), investors are cautiously optimistic but wary of potential risks. The markets have initially responded positively to the new pact, but political analysts warn that any instability within this coalition could quickly undo the progress made.”
